尚未知道什么是margin account的请看前文click here

到底margin account运用在真实上,可行度多高,到底多大可能中margin call?

最好的方法是从历史中找答案,接下来我们模拟margin account运用,在2015年分别购入Igbreit(5227.KLSE),Klcc,Amfirst。

模拟情况如下:

  • 投资数额RM100k
  • margin account 利息为4.5%
  • margin ratio 60%
  • 所得股息将全数投入减少贷款
  • valuation on reit 90% on all time

废话少说,开始吧:

Igbreit

4th Jan 2015股价为RM1.28,以RM100k资本将购入78,125 unit,再magin account以RM1.28,购入78,125unit,中持有unit = 156,250 unit

margin ratio = Rm100,000/RM180,000 = 55.55% (根据计算,股价必须低于RM1.184,才会中margin call)

这么多年来,igbreit股价不曾低于RM1.184,所以不曾中margin call

5year dividend

  • 2015 – 8.19cent per unit =RM11,517 (after tax)
  • 2016 – 8.71cent per unit = RM12,248 (after tax)
  • 2017 – 9.28cent per unit = RM13,050 (after tax)
  • 2018 – 9.19 cent per unit = RM12,923 (after tax)
  • 2019 – 9.16 cent per unit = RM12,882 (after tax)
  • 2020 – 1.94 cent per unit = RM2728 (after tax)

margin outstanding

  • 2015 – RM100,000 + RM4,500 (interest) – RM11,517 (dividend) = RM92,983
  • 2016 – RM92,983 + RM4,184 (interest) – RM12,248 (dividend) = RM84,919
  • 2017 – RM84,919 + RM3,821 (interset) – RM13,050 (dividend) = RM75,690
  • 2018 – RM74,690 + RM3406 (interest) – RM12,923 (dividend) = RM65,173
  • 2019 – RM65,173 + RM2,933 (interest) – RM12,882 (dividend) = RM55,224
  • 2020 – RM55224 + RM1,450 (interest on 7 month) – RM2728 (dividend) = RM53,946

igbreit 17th Jul 2020 股价 = RM1.78,手上股票总值RM278,125,margin贷款余额RM53,946,成本RM100,000,净回酬RM124,179或124.17% in 5.5year

KLCC

4th Jan 2015股价为RM6.69,以RM100k资本将购入14,948 unit,再magin account以RM6.69,购入14,948unit,中持有unit = 29896 unit

margin ratio = Rm100,000/RM180,000 = 55.55% (根据计算,股价必须低于RM6.2,才会中margin call)

这么多年来,klcc股价不曾低于RM6.2,所以不曾中margin call

5year dividend

  • 2015 – 34.65cent per unit =RM9323 (after tax)
  • 2016 – 35.65cent per unit = RM9,592 (after tax)
  • 2017 – 36.15cent per unit = RM9,726 (after tax)
  • 2018 – 37cent per unit = RM9,955 (after tax)
  • 2019 – 38 cent per unit = RM10,224 (after tax)
  • 2020 – 8.3cent per unit = RM2,233 (after tax)

margin outstanding

  • 2015 – RM100,000 + RM4,500 (interest) – RM9,323 (dividend) = RM95,177
  • 2016 – RM95,177 + RM4,283 (interest) – RM9,592 (dividend) = RM89,868
  • 2017 – RM89,868 + RM4,044 (interset) – RM9,726 (dividend) = RM84,186
  • 2018 – RM84,186 + RM3,788 (interest) – RM9,955(dividend) = RM78,019
  • 2019 – RM78,019 + RM3,511 (interest) – RM10,224 (dividend) = RM71,306
  • 2020 – RM71,306 + RM1,872 (interest on 7 month) – RM2,233 (dividend) = RM70,945

klcc 17th Jul 2020 股价 = RM7.94,手上股票总值RM237,374,margin贷款余额RM70,945,成本RM100,000,净回酬RM66,429或66.429% in 5.5year

Amfirst

4th Jan 2015股价为RM0.91,以RM100k资本将购入109,890unit,再magin account以RM0.91,购入109,890unit,中持有unit = 219,780 unit

margin ratio = Rm100,000/RM180,000 = 55.55% (根据计算,股价必须低于RM0.844,才会中margin call)

补偿数额(扣除了dividend后,加上interset)

  • Dec2015,股价跌至 RM0.745,需要补仓RM1,000
  • Jan2016,股价跌至RM0.73,需要补仓RM2,000
  • Feb2016,股价跌至RM0.72,需要补仓RM1,500
  • Mar2018,股价跌至RM0.625,需要补仓RM500
  • Apr2018,股价跌至RM0.60,需要补仓RM3,200
  • Dec2018,股价跌至RM0.55,需要补仓RM200
  • Jan2019,股价保持RM0.55,加上利息后,需要补仓RM200
  • Feb2019,股价跌至RM0.52,需要补仓RM3,800
  • Oct2019,股价跌至RM0.485,需要补仓RM1,700
  • Mar2020,股价跌至RM0.46,需要补仓RM500
  • Mid of March, super covid drop,股价跌至RM0.355,需要补仓RM12,500

5year dividend

  • total RM51,900 (通过excel 计算,这里省略)

margin outstanding at jul 2020

  • RM39,461 (通过excel 计算,这里省略)

Amfirst 17th Jul 2020 股价 = RM0.41,手上股票总值RM90,109,margin贷款余额RM39,461,成本RM100,000,补仓成本RM27,100

总亏损 = RM76,452 平均一年亏13.9

总结:

IGBREIT – 高dividend yield贷款余额将快速以股息缴付,加上股价上升,回酬相当惊人。

KLCC – 低dividend yield,贷款余额缴付速度较慢,回酬大部分来自于股价上升。

Amfirst – 一开始高股息,然而股息也来也低,最后5年得补仓11次,亏的妈妈都不认得。