许多投资者都对大马产托保持观望态度,预计Covid 19对大马产托,尤其是零售产托影响大。无可否认,影响一定会有,今天就来做个压力测试,对比sunreit (5176.KLSE),IGBREIT(5227.KLSE),PAVREIT(5212.KLSE),Hektar(5121.KLSE), CMMT(5180.KLSE)

压力测试的条件为,假设MCO总共长达6个月,那么零售产托半年没收入,revenue跌50%,其他的expenses与2019财政年一样,看看结果会如何。当然,这是不可能的,当revenue下滑时,某些非必要支出可被节省,可是我们要做压力测试,试着给最大压力吧。

到底各产托表现如何,看看吧,先从最大产业估值的sunreit开始吧:

sunreitnormal 201950% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000)580,299290149.5
other income (RM’000)113,030113,030
toal income (RM’000)693,329403,180
Property operating expenses (RM’000)140,604140,604
other expenses (RM’000)158,407158,407
unrealised income + other (RM’000)111,982111,982
net realised income (RM’000)282,336-7,814
Earning per unit (cent RM)9.59-0.27

可以看到的是,sunreit最后亏损0.27cent per unit。

再来到pavreit:

pavreitnormal 201950% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000)585,353292676.5
other income (RM’000)26,29426,294
toal income (RM’000)611,647318,971
Property operating expenses (RM’000)210,169210,169
other expenses (RM’000)138,848138,848
unrealised income + other (RM’000)15,00515,005
net realised income (RM’000)247,625-45,052
Earning per unit (cent RM)8.64-1.49

结果是亏损1.49cent per unit (RM),还相当多也。

再来到IGBREIT:

igbreitnormal 201950% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000)552,132276066
other income (RM’000)33,12233,122
toal income (RM’000)585,254309,188
Property operating expenses (RM’000)153,346153,346
other expenses (RM’000)90,05490,054
unrealised income + other (RM’000)0
net realised income (RM’000)341,85465,788
Earning per unit (cent RM)8.911.85

IGBREIT竟然还有赚1.85cent per unit(RM),若全数用于派息,相等于1.8cent的派息啦,好疯狂。

再来到CMMT:

cmmtnormal 201950% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000)342,276171138
other income (RM’000)11,45611,456
toal income (RM’000)353,732182,594
Property operating expenses (RM’000)140,156140,156
other expenses (RM’000)85,58185,581
unrealised income + other (RM’000)
net realised income (RM’000)127,995-43,143
Earning per unit (cent RM)4.6-2.10

CMMT亏损2.1cent per unit(RM)

再来到Hektar:

hektarnormal 201950% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000)137,08968544.5
other income (RM’000)4,3924,392
toal income (RM’000)141,48172,937
Property operating expenses (RM’000)61,65361,653
other expenses (RM’000)40,21540,215
unrealised income + other (RM’000)28,17128,171
net realised income (RM’000)11,442-57,103
Earning per unit (cent RM)9.57-12.36

Hektar亏12.36cent per unit(RM),这可是大亏啊!

可以看到的是,在Revenue大砍50%下,IGBREIT还有能力派息1.8cent per unit,而Sunreit小亏一些,pavreit亏1.49cent,CMMT亏损接近2cent(RM),hektar大亏12.36cent(RM)

为何零售产托之间差别这么大?因为这两点:

  1. gearing ratio,igbreit 26%, sunreit 37.9%, pavreit 33.93%, CMMT 33.7%, hektar 44.1%,gearing ratio越低,需要缴付的利息越低,防卫性越高。
  2. net property income / revenue ratio,sunreit 75%,IGBREIT 72.2%,pavreit 64%,hektar 54%,CMMT 54% raito越高代表公司收益越好。

知道你们对IGBREIT有兴趣的啦,请关注它的专页Link text

知道你们对SUNREIT有兴趣的啦,请关注它的专页Link text

以上文章纯属分享,并不是投资或买卖建议。