许多投资者都对大马产托保持观望态度,预计Covid 19对大马产托,尤其是零售产托影响大。无可否认,影响一定会有,今天就来做个压力测试,对比sunreit (5176.KLSE),IGBREIT(5227.KLSE),PAVREIT(5212.KLSE),Hektar(5121.KLSE), CMMT(5180.KLSE)

压力测试的条件为,假设MCO总共长达6个月,那么零售产托半年没收入,revenue跌50%,其他的expenses与2019财政年一样,看看结果会如何。当然,这是不可能的,当revenue下滑时,某些非必要支出可被节省,可是我们要做压力测试,试着给最大压力吧。

到底各产托表现如何,看看吧,先从最大产业估值的sunreit开始吧:

sunreit normal 2019 50% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000) 580,299 290149.5
other income (RM’000) 113,030 113,030
toal income (RM’000) 693,329 403,180
Property operating expenses (RM’000) 140,604 140,604
other expenses (RM’000) 158,407 158,407
unrealised income + other (RM’000) 111,982 111,982
net realised income (RM’000) 282,336 -7,814
Earning per unit (cent RM) 9.59 -0.27

可以看到的是,sunreit最后亏损0.27cent per unit。

再来到pavreit:

pavreit normal 2019 50% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000) 585,353 292676.5
other income (RM’000) 26,294 26,294
toal income (RM’000) 611,647 318,971
Property operating expenses (RM’000) 210,169 210,169
other expenses (RM’000) 138,848 138,848
unrealised income + other (RM’000) 15,005 15,005
net realised income (RM’000) 247,625 -45,052
Earning per unit (cent RM) 8.64 -1.49

结果是亏损1.49cent per unit (RM),还相当多也。

再来到IGBREIT:

igbreit normal 2019 50% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000) 552,132 276066
other income (RM’000) 33,122 33,122
toal income (RM’000) 585,254 309,188
Property operating expenses (RM’000) 153,346 153,346
other expenses (RM’000) 90,054 90,054
unrealised income + other (RM’000) 0
net realised income (RM’000) 341,854 65,788
Earning per unit (cent RM) 8.91 1.85

IGBREIT竟然还有赚1.85cent per unit(RM),若全数用于派息,相等于1.8cent的派息啦,好疯狂。

再来到CMMT:

cmmt normal 2019 50% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000) 342,276 171138
other income (RM’000) 11,456 11,456
toal income (RM’000) 353,732 182,594
Property operating expenses (RM’000) 140,156 140,156
other expenses (RM’000) 85,581 85,581
unrealised income + other (RM’000)
net realised income (RM’000) 127,995 -43,143
Earning per unit (cent RM) 4.6 -2.10

CMMT亏损2.1cent per unit(RM)

再来到Hektar:

hektar normal 2019 50% reduced revenue
revenue (RM’000) 137,089 68544.5
other income (RM’000) 4,392 4,392
toal income (RM’000) 141,481 72,937
Property operating expenses (RM’000) 61,653 61,653
other expenses (RM’000) 40,215 40,215
unrealised income + other (RM’000) 28,171 28,171
net realised income (RM’000) 11,442 -57,103
Earning per unit (cent RM) 9.57 -12.36

Hektar亏12.36cent per unit(RM),这可是大亏啊!

可以看到的是,在Revenue大砍50%下,IGBREIT还有能力派息1.8cent per unit,而Sunreit小亏一些,pavreit亏1.49cent,CMMT亏损接近2cent(RM),hektar大亏12.36cent(RM)

为何零售产托之间差别这么大?因为这两点:

  1. gearing ratio,igbreit 26%, sunreit 37.9%, pavreit 33.93%, CMMT 33.7%, hektar 44.1%,gearing ratio越低,需要缴付的利息越低,防卫性越高。
  2. net property income / revenue ratio,sunreit 75%,IGBREIT 72.2%,pavreit 64%,hektar 54%,CMMT 54% raito越高代表公司收益越好。

知道你们对IGBREIT有兴趣的啦,请关注它的专页Link text

知道你们对SUNREIT有兴趣的啦,请关注它的专页Link text

以上文章纯属分享,并不是投资或买卖建议。